ASML on Wednesday raised its sales forecast for 2026 after beating first-quarter revenue and profit expectations. This strong performance came from the continuous demand for chips related to artificial intelligence.
For the first quarter, ASML reported net sales of 8.8 billion euros ($10.4 billion), surpassing the LSEG consensus estimate of 8.5 billion euros. Net profit also exceeded expectations, reaching 2.8 billion euros compared to the expected 2.5 billion euros. The company had previously predicted its first-quarter sales to be between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros. The Dutch firm now expects its 2026 net sales to be between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros, an increase from its earlier forecast of 34 billion euros to 39 billion euros.
ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet stated in a press release, “The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments.” He added, “Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers.” ASML shares remained flat in early European trade.
This is the first quarter that ASML did not release order numbers, a metric investors usually watch closely. Fouquet did confirm on Wednesday that ASML’s order intake “continues to be very strong.” Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, noted that while the market was initially “perturbed” by the missing order numbers, there is “enough other data out there to hold the company to account.” In an interview, Barringer also suggested the market had already anticipated the kind of growth ASML is now projecting for 2026, saying, “The market was a little bit ahead of them.”
ASML also provided a slightly longer-term outlook. Fouquet said the company could deliver 80 of its low numerical aperture (NA) extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines in 2027, “if customer demand really underpins” it. Barclays noted this “could disappoint somewhat with hopes 90 is possible in 2027.”
The ramp-up in chipmaking is driving this demand. ASML is often seen as an indicator for chip demand because it manufactures the tools needed to make the most advanced semiconductors. One of its top customers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), recently reported record first-quarter revenue due to strong demand for AI chips.
There is an ongoing shortage of memory chips, which has pushed their prices to record highs. Memory is crucial for AI systems and data centers. As a result, South Korean firms Samsung and SK Hynix plan to increase production capacity, which will require ASML machinery. ASML stated that 51% of its new tool sales in the first quarter went to memory production, up from 30% in the previous quarter. South Korean customers accounted for 45% of sales, while Taiwanese customers represented 23%.
However, ASML faces challenges, including difficulties in China, where it cannot ship its most advanced machines due to export restrictions. Earlier this month, U.S. lawmakers proposed a law that would even ban ASML’s less-advanced machines for export to China. That law is still making its way through the U.S. legislative process. System sales to China fell to 19% of overall sales in the first quarter, down from 36% in the December quarter.
